A North Korean representative affirmed
that until DPRK does not develop an ICBM capable of reaching the East Coast of USA,
they will not be interested in diplomacy. North Korea does not exclude the
diplomatic path, but before embarking on diplomacy with the Trump
administration they want to convey the clear message that the DPRK has a
defensive capability and reliable offensive to counteract any US aggression.
These statements are a real challenge for the United States and the Trump
administration to reflect on their contradictory messages about diplomatic
efforts on the North.
In a statement made by the White House
Secretary General John Kelly said “Americans should be worried about North
Korea’s ability to reach the United States” with an intercontinental ballistic
missile. He told journalists that if the threat grows “beyond the present
level, well, let’s hope diplomacy works.” Kelly also notes that Pyongyang
develops a nuclear vehicle re-entering the fairly good atmosphere.
For a missile to successfully hit a
target, it must re-enter the atmosphere without disintegrating. With these
statements, Kelly seems to suggest that Washington believes that Pyongyang is
approaching a key achievement in its ballistic program.
A North Korean official told CNN that
two steps are still needed to reach its goal – a reliable ICBM.
One stage is nuclear detonation above
ground such as that raised by North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho at the
UN, where he suggested that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is planning to
detonate an unprecedented hydrogen bomb over the ocean Pacific, after US
President Donald Trump threatened the complete destruction of North Korea.
The other stage is testing a long-range
ICBM capable of reaching Guam Island and moving even further away from it, the
Both steps are needed for the DPRK to
transmit a “clear message” to the Trump administration, according to
which it has an effective nuclear disarmament, this official points out.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
stressed that he would continue his diplomatic efforts for as long as possible,
despite the hijacking of weapons on both shores of the Pacific.
At present, simple possession of
nuclear weapons operates as an element of deterrence among political dispute.
Because DPRK’s leader tries so strongly to achieve a place among the countires
with nuclear power, it has been reported developing new types of strategic
weapons, including atomic and hydrogen bombs.
The North Korean projectile is a way of
deterrence to the pressures put up by the US government for the suppression of
its nuclear program. As some experts say, DPRK is actually using its missile
and nuclear program as a deterrent, international prestige and coercive
diplomacy against USA, just to protect themselves but not to start a war.
On the other hand, using only diplomacy
to deter DPRK, without the use of power, is almost impossible, but could slow
down North Korea’s developing nuclear program. This is however hard to achieve
and would imply that US, South Korea and Japan to have to “adapt to the new
The US North Korean Threat Strategy has
been developed over several decades, and in the last few years, since the
launch of the nuclear-powered missile series, the United States and its allies
have a new rhetoric in order to control the situation.
There are not many options, and
President Donald Trump has four possible solutions:
1. Continue on the same line as before,
by using political diplomacy and peaceful talks but without the involving
2. A diplomatic offensive, so that
through China, Kim-Jong-un is brought to the table, but for that to happen,
Trump has to offer something to China and the regime Pyongyang. That may mean a
loss of influence in the China Sea, amplifying the danger of destabilizing
South Korea and Japan.
3. The last option is that of war with
consequences that are hard to control. Many experts argue that an armed
conflict has great potential for spreading in the area.
Finally, the use of coercive diplomacy
and deterrence against North Korea could be a good plan to control DPRK’s
development of nuclear power but in the same time it should not be forgotten
that the dictator Kim has no known successor and that his state of health,
despite his youth, is not as good as it should be. It may as well, that keeping
the use of aggression from US and waiting for the fall of the leader by himself
is the best option to conciliate the problem.